How Long Will the U.S.–China Trade War Last?
Introduction: The U.S.–China Trade War — A Persistent Global Conflict
The economic conflict between the United States and China — commonly known as the U.S.–China trade war — has become one of the most consequential global economic issues of the 21st century. This trade war involves escalating tariffs, supply chain restrictions, and political tensions that stretch far beyond simple trade statistics. While initial tit-for-tat tariffs began in 2018, recent developments have intensified the conflict, and many analysts now question how long this trade war will continue and when it might finally end. (Wikipedia)
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Background: From 2018 to Today
The U.S.–China economic conflict began in January 2018, when the U.S. government imposed significant tariffs on Chinese imports to combat trade imbalances and alleged unfair practices. China quickly responded with its own tariffs, kickstarting a cycle of escalation. (Wikipedia)
A partial de-escalation occurred in 2020 with the so-called “Phase One Deal,” in which both sides agreed to limited tariff rollbacks and commitments around Chinese purchases of U.S. goods. However, most tariffs remained in place. (China Briefing)
In 2025, tensions flared again when the Trump administration enacted steep tariffs — as high as 145% on some Chinese products — prompting Beijing to retaliate with duties up to 125%. (EMedia DPR RI)
Is the Trade War Ending Soon? Current Situation (2026)
Temporary Pauses, Not Permanent Peace
In May 2025, the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary truce that significantly reduced tariff rates — lowering U.S. tariffs from 145% to 30%, and China’s retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10% — with a 90-day pause aimed at creating room for negotiation. (AP News)
That pause was later extended to November 10, 2025, allowing more time for high-level talks. (Reuters)
However, experts stress that this pause is not a full resolution. Underlying structural problems — such as disputes over intellectual property, technology transfers, industrial subsidies, and national security concerns — remain unaddressed. (Le Monde.fr)
Expert Predictions on the Duration of the Trade War
Academic and Economic Forecasts
Economic researchers suggest that historically, trade conflicts with heavy political components rarely end quickly. For example, one academic model predicts only a roughly 17% chance the trade war could end by 2025, with a much higher likelihood that tensions will continue for another four to five years or more without a major breakthrough. (University of Rochester)
This means even if moderated, the trade war could persist well into the late 2020s — potentially until 2029 or beyond — as long as core strategic disagreements are not resolved.
Why Ending the Trade War Is Difficult
1. Deep Structural Conflicts
Experts emphasize that the trade war isn’t caused solely by tariffs; it’s tied to broader competition in technology, national security, and industrial policy. These issues are inherently complex and resistant to quick compromises. (Le Monde.fr)
2. Political Will on Both Sides
The U.S. and China both have domestic political motivations that make concessions difficult. In Washington, there is strong domestic pressure to be tough on China; likewise, Beijing is unwilling to make concessions that could be perceived as weakening its sovereignty or economic strategy.
3. Broad Economic Impact
The conflict exists not just between two governments but throughout global supply chains. Multinational companies, financial markets, and third-party countries are already adapting to tariff regimes by shifting supply chains — changes that may remain regardless of whether tariffs are reduced later. (arXiv)
Economic and Global Impacts of a Prolonged Trade War
International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysts warn that prolonged tariff tensions could dampen global growth and increase economic uncertainty. In early 2026, the IMF noted the risk of broader market disruptions due to escalating tariffs and geopolitical tensions — even beyond the U.S.–China context. (The Guardian)
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Additionally:
China’s exports showed resilience in 2025 despite tariffs, with strong growth outside the U.S. market. (AP News)
Financial markets and firms are adjusting by prioritizing supply chain diversification. (Financial Times)
These adjustments suggest a long-term structural realignment of global trade patterns rather than a simple return to pre-war trade relations.
Conclusion: When Might the Trade War End?
There is no definitive end date for the U.S.–China trade war. Although temporary tariff reductions and negotiation pauses offer hope of easing tensions, the conflict is rooted in deep strategic issues that are unlikely to be resolved quickly.
Experts widely believe that:
✔ The trade war will likely continue beyond 2025 and possibly into the late 2020s. (University of Rochester)
✔ Even if tariffs are lowered further, the structural competition in technology, security, and economics may keep tensions alive in other forms.
Therefore, rather than expecting an immediate end to trade hostilities, the global economy should prepare for a prolonged period of managed rivalry between the United States and China — with shifting tariffs and diplomatic negotiations playing out over many years.
Key References for Further Reading
U.S.–China trade war history and timeline — Comprehensive overview of trade dispute developments since 2018. (China Briefing)
Trade war forecast beyond 2025 — Academic model estimating likely future duration. (University of Rochester)
Current economic impacts — Latest IMF warning on trade tensions and global growth. (The Guardian)