A Fundamental Analysis of PT Dosni Roha Indonesia Tbk (ZBRA)
Fundamental analysis is the process of evaluating a company's intrinsic value by examining its financial statements, business model, and competitive environment. This article provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis of PT Dosni Roha Indonesia Tbk (ZBRA), an Indonesian company with a diversified business portfolio, including logistics, healthcare, and retail.
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| A Fundamental Analysis of PT Dosni Roha Indonesia Tbk (ZBRA) |
1. Company Overview and Business Model
PT Dosni Roha Indonesia Tbk (ZBRA), formerly known as PT Zebra Nusantara Tbk, has undergone a significant transformation. The company has diversified its business from its original taxi services into a multifaceted group with interests in logistics, healthcare, and retail distribution. This strategic shift has positioned the company as a holding entity whose performance is heavily dependent on the collective success of its subsidiaries. The key business segments include:
Logistics: The company offers logistics and supply chain management solutions.
Healthcare: Through its subsidiary, PT Dosni Roha, the company is involved in the distribution of pharmaceutical and medical products.
Retail: The company also has a presence in the retail and distribution sector.
This diversified model is intended to mitigate risks associated with a single business segment and capitalize on the growth of different sectors of the Indonesian economy.
2. Financial Performance and Key Ratios
Analyzing ZBRA's financial performance over recent periods reveals a highly challenging and volatile situation, which is a major concern for investors.
A. Profitability
ZBRA's profitability has been in a dire state, with the company consistently reporting substantial losses.
Net Profit: The company has reported a net loss for several consecutive periods. For the full year 2024, ZBRA recorded a staggering net loss of IDR 50.7 billion, a slight improvement from a net loss of IDR 58.6 billion in 2023. These massive, accumulating losses are a major red flag, indicating that the company's expenses are far outpacing its revenues and that it is failing to generate profit from its core operations.
Revenue: In line with its profit struggles, the company's revenue has also shown a decline. In Q1 2025, revenue was IDR 212 billion, a decrease from IDR 230 billion in the same period of 2024. This shrinking top line, coupled with consistent losses, is a worrying sign for a company in a recovery phase.
Profitability Ratios:
Net Profit Margin (NPM): ZBRA's NPM is in the negative range, at approximately -22.3%. A negative margin signifies that the company is losing money on every sale, which is a severe financial problem.
Return on Equity (ROE): The company's ROE is also deeply negative, at -17.5%. A negative ROE shows that the company is not only failing to generate a return on shareholder capital but is actively destroying shareholder value.
B. Solvency and Liquidity
Assessing ZBRA's ability to meet its financial obligations is critical, especially given its significant losses and a high debt load.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The company has an extremely high debt-to-equity ratio of 185%. This signifies that ZBRA is heavily leveraged, relying more on debt than on shareholder equity to finance its operations. A high debt load in a company with a history of losses poses a significant risk of default and potential bankruptcy.
Interest Coverage: With its negative EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes), ZBRA cannot cover its interest payments from its operating profit. This is an extremely dangerous financial position and indicates a high level of financial distress.
Current Ratio: The company's current ratio is at 1.16. While this ratio is just above the minimum of 1, it is not strong enough to outweigh the serious concerns about profitability and long-term solvency.
3. Valuation and Market Performance
Valuation metrics provide insight into whether the stock is fairly priced by the market.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: A P/E ratio cannot be calculated for a company with negative earnings. The absence of a positive P/E ratio is a strong negative signal, highlighting the company's unprofitability.
Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: ZBRA's P/B ratio is approximately 0.67x. A P/B ratio this far below 1 suggests that the market has very low confidence in the company and values it at a significant discount to its book value. This is not necessarily a sign of undervaluation but a clear reflection of the market's justified pessimism about the company's future.
Stock Performance: The company's stock price has performed poorly, with a significant decline over the past year. The stock has been trading at low prices, reflecting the widespread concern among investors about its financial health.
4. Risks and Opportunities
An investment in ZBRA comes with a unique set of significant risks and, potentially, limited opportunities.
Opportunities:
Business Diversification: The company's move into high-growth sectors like healthcare and logistics could provide a long-term path to profitability if management can execute its strategy effectively.
Turnaround Potential: If management can successfully restructure the company, reduce costs, and capitalize on new market opportunities, it could present a compelling turnaround story.
Risks:
Persistent Financial Losses: The most significant risk is the company's consistent inability to generate a profit. This trend, if it continues, will erode shareholder value and could threaten the company's long-term survival.
High Leverage: The high debt-to-equity ratio and the company's financial losses pose a significant risk of financial distress.
Intense Competition: The logistics, healthcare, and retail sectors are highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share.
Economic Downturn: An economic downturn could reduce demand for the company's services and put further pressure on its profitability.
Conclusion
Based on a fundamental analysis, PT Dosni Roha Indonesia Tbk (ZBRA) is a highly speculative and extremely high-risk investment. The company's financial state is precarious, marked by persistent massive net losses, a high debt-to-equity ratio, and an inability to cover its interest payments from its operating profit. The stock's extremely low P/B ratio is not a sign of undervaluation but rather a clear reflection of the market's profound lack of confidence in the company's ability to recover.
For a prudent investor, ZBRA's current financial condition presents a classic "value trap" scenario, where the low price lures in investors who ignore the fundamental risks. An investment in ZBRA should only be considered by those with a very high-risk tolerance who are speculating on a dramatic and improbable financial turnaround.
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