The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Index rebalancing is one of the most anticipated events for Indonesian investors. As the February 2026 Quarterly Index Review approaches, market participants are closely watching several high-profile stocks that have the potential to "graduate" into the MSCI Global Standard Index.
The official announcement is scheduled for February 10, 2026, with the changes becoming effective at the market close on February 27, 2026.
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| List of Stocks Potentially Included in the MSCI Index in February 2026 |
Why the MSCI Index Rebalancing Matters
The MSCI Index serves as a primary benchmark for institutional investors and global fund managers. When a stock is included:
Passive Inflow: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and mutual funds tracking the index are mandated to buy the stock.
Enhanced Visibility: It puts the company on the radar of global institutional players.
Improved Liquidity: The increased volume from global funds often leads to higher daily trading turnover and potential price appreciation (re-rating).
Top Candidates for February 2026 Inclusion
Based on recent market capitalization, liquidity requirements, and free-float adjustments, analysts from major brokerages like Indo Premier and Mirae Asset have highlighted several key contenders.
1. PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI)
BUMI is currently the strongest candidate to move from the Small Cap to the Standard Index.
Market Cap: As of early 2026, BUMI’s market capitalization has surpassed the minimum threshold required for the Standard Index.
Key Driver: Analysts estimate the minimum price threshold for inclusion is around Rp315/share, while the current market price has remained steadily above this level.
Significance: A move to the Standard Index would represent a major "rehabilitation" for the Bakrie-Salim joint venture stock in the eyes of global investors.
2. PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO)
PTRO is another member of the Small Cap Index currently knocking on the door of the Standard Index.
Free Float Update: MSCI recently updated PTRO’s free float to 30% (up from 25%), which lowered the price cut-off required for inclusion.
Price Momentum: Analysts suggest PTRO needs to maintain a price range of Rp11,000 – Rp12,000 to remain a viable candidate. Its recent performance suggests it is well within this range.
3. PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk (PANI)
PANI has become a retail favorite due to its massive property development projects.
The Valuation Hurdle: While its market cap is substantial, PANI's entry depends on its ability to satisfy MSCI’s free-float and liquidity requirements.
Caution: Some analysts warn that while the "rumor" of MSCI inclusion may drive the price up, the valuation is already considered "expensive" by traditional metrics, creating a risk of "sell on news" once the announcement is made.
4. PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk (ADMR)
Formerly known as Adaro Minerals, ADMR is a potential "dark horse" for the February review.
Liquidity Standards: ADMR is on the verge of meeting the updated liquidity standards. If its daily average trading value (ADTV) remains high throughout the review period, it could see a "size migration" upward.
Key Metrics for MSCI Inclusion
To understand why these stocks are chosen, it is essential to look at the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes (GIMI) methodology:
| Metric | Requirement |
| Full Market Cap | Must be in the top percentile of the Indonesian equity universe. |
| Free Float-Adjusted Cap | Only shares available for public trading are counted. |
| Liquidity (ATVR) | The Annualized Traded Value Ratio must meet specific regional floors. |
| Foreign Inclusion Factor | Foreigners must be able to realistically buy and hold the shares. |
Important Note: On January 30, 2026, MSCI is expected to announce whether they will incorporate data from KSEI (Indonesian Central Securities Depository) to refine free-float calculations. If approved, this could significantly change the weightings of Indonesian stocks starting in May 2026.
Strategy for Investors
Buy on Rumor, Monitor the News: Often, the price surge happens before the announcement.
Watch the "Watchlist Board": Stocks under the IDX Watchlist Board (Criteria 10—share suspension) are generally ineligible for MSCI migration. This is a critical factor for stocks like FILM, which may face delays due to recent trading halts.
Potential Exclusions: Currently, stocks like INDF and CPIN have the lowest weightings in the Standard Index. While an exclusion is unlikely in February, a significant price drop of 20-30% could put them at risk in the future.